tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg October 7, 2015 12:00pm-2:01pm EDT
betty: from the bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. >> here's what we are watching this hour. the imf says the fed should wait for more signs on inflation before increasing rates. a livejournal -- a live interview with the director in fema. rebound inroduction the last week, we will look at whether oil will continue its march higher. >> we will be hearing from twitter cofounder and williams in a live interview. what does he think of his fellow cofounder jack dorsey returning to the company as the permanently named ceo. let's had first to the market desk where julie has a look of the markets. julie: there are some things in
that rally because we have seen a little bit of volatility in today's session. all major averages are higher but we saw it negative briefly before gaining, and the data is not very impressive by recent standards, up just a quarter of 1%. i have a graph of oil versus the s&p 500. oil, after inventories report came out showing unexpected build in oil inventory last week, we saw a drop in oil prices, that is in yellow. we saw stocks falling along with that before a bit of a bounce but -- bounce from both. they are coming up the longest rally since april. we have seen a rebound in oil prices and there are -- there is some volatility. now they are seeing a decrease in prices. >> part of that, if you read between the numbers of inventory was increased by about 70,000 barrels last week. that was unexpected because the
eia has been downsizing their inventory. not a biotech situation, tech is the biggest drag that we are seeing on the major averages. adobe is a part of that issue. the company forecast a fiscal 2016 profit and sales shorts of -- short of sales analysts. it has been making a transition more toward a cloud-based company. they have made billing changes and as a result of that, shares are down certainly -- sharply. julie: if you take a look at apple and how it is trading, we are seeing a decline there. as such a big company, it is a big drag. this is a chart of the cap -- of apple against the s&p 500. they have both bounced to some extent. that movement has changed somewhat over the past month.
here, you see apple in orange and has continued to go down where it -- where is the s&p 500 has rebounded. inle has not participated the rebound that we see the s&p over the past week or so. >> let's check in on the bloomberg first word headlines. >> like most of the republican president of candidates, john boehner today said identifying the mental ill is the key to preventing gun violence. in what may be one of his final news conferences as bigger of the house, he criticized the way president obama reacted to the latest mass shooting. >> the president can rail all he wants. let's talk about what can we do to make sure that people with serious mental illness don't have access to weapons. we should quit fighting over this and start thinking about how -- what is doable and what
would have an impact? >> at least three congressmen want to succeed mr. weiner who is retiring. the house will vote to choose a new speaker on october 29. the american commander in afghanistan reportedly believes that u.s. forces broke their own rules and their attack on the hospital over the weekend. campbell is set to believe the troops should not have called in an airstrike window american or afghan forces were in extreme danger. the national guard in south carolina believe the worst has been averted with a dam that was threatening to break. some people who left their homes have started to return. water is flowing to the sea which could lead to more flooding. vice president biden has not said yet whether or not he is running for president but he is being urged to. the ad focuses on a tragedy in his life, the car accident that
killed his wife and daughter. the ad includes his speech that he delivered at yale university, recalling how his life was shaped by the accident. sources say he may make the decision as early as this weekend. it may be the summer of donald trump, but wall street is shrugging their shoulders. they are placing bets on mainstream presidential hopefuls like jeb bush, marco rubio and hillary clinton and showing little enthusiasm for trump, ben carson, and bernie sanders. another indicator of donor preference will be revealed next month when campaigns disclose fundraising results for the latest quarter. that's a look at the first word headlines right now. you can always find the latest news on bloomberg.com. >> we want to turn back to stocks.
you have biotech and energy but where are we in a technical level. i want to bring in scott redler. hi scott. we have been talking quite a bit about the s&p and what kind of range we are in, where are we? >> we are in the upper end of the range. one of the fastest,. it's moves we've had in a wild. the staff said the biggest outside reversal in four years and the market has not stopped since. we are knocking on the door of the moving average in the s&p which stands around 1998. they can reclaim that 50 day moving average and maybe seeing a bit -- may be seeing a bit of higher movement later in the year. >> how to that influence what they are doing now? >> they are looking better
considering the s&p is down 3.4% for the year. this way, when people get their statements, oh, they did not do as bad. suddenly that vested interest leaves. again,backs could start even after the 31st is over and has beenact on stocks corporate buybacks and there have been none of them in the past two weeks. >> it's that dark. period. they have been an important pool of investors for the market and that is a buyers class we don't really see otherwise. if there is weakness in the first 30 minutes and then corporate buybacks may come in, let's see if we can get a pop in based on the technicals. august 24, the flash crash, there was some staff and 50% of the buying that day was from corporate buybacks, not from mom buydad saying by stock --
stock. >> you are looking at the s&p equal weighted index. every stock is rated equal in the s&p and we see that we did have a retest, the little lower from that august 24 low. what does that tell you want a technical basis that we tested it and have rallied since? >> we do not have a cascade below it because a lot of people worry that if you went back there and there was no support there, you could see 1770, 1740. the crazy event in the market were volatility is going to spark -- spike. if you broke down low, maybe that could of happened so short is covered. people double bottom and want to see what is next and we are at that spot of what is next. we are the top and of the resistance and the next obstacle is to claim with force so to gain some confidence to get maybe another move toward 2060 into november-ish.
ofwe mentioned the context buybacks and how people could come back again, but we also have to be -- have low expectations heading into the third quarter results. talk about what that means when you have a range bound trading scenario for traditionally strong fourth quarters. >> at the bar is lower, they will not have to do too much in order to rally. when you see something like young, there is no way you could yum, there isike no way you could spend that. if it's very stock specific where -- do they get low -- hurt and county rest of the market ignore it but if it starts being very sanctions specific, money will leave that and go somewhere else. expectations are low for oil and oil stocks are now all of a sudden, fourth quarter, it looks like some money has been going there and they have been outperforming the last three sessions. >> that brings me to the next oilt, we kind of saw some
action where it's in this range, not moving anywhere. what kind of reg out might we see -- breakout might we see for oil? >> we have been coiling, like you said. that about it, they have grown -- thrown the kitchen sink at oil. you had every inventory bigger than expected and things go down. this week we broke above that $45, $46 and a little bit of resistance today and the bulls were upset that inventories were higher, so that's why you saw a bit of a pull back there. $45, $46,ld hold maybe there is some hope that oil can close north of $50 which will be good for the emerging markets and heading -- and heading overseas. >> that's a good, new spread then. minutes, we next 20
will have live to live in group for the imf meeting and a check on its global economic forecast. >> thanks but no thanks, that is what sab miller has said to a takeover offer -- take over offer. to democratic voters really want joe biden to jump into the race? we will reveal the results from our politics focus group and they may surprise you. ♪
alix: time is running out at sea of chrysler as members say they will go on strike tonight if they don't have a new contract. they rejected a proposed deal because they want an end to the two year 6 -- pay system. volkswagen says in january it will start recalling those cars involved in the admissions scandal. up to 11 million vehicles have software to cheat on omissions tastes -- test -- on emissions tests. -- as the nation's top performer. you can always get more business news at bloomberg.com. scarlet: let's build -- meld businesses with market news.
julius checking on company movers and so far, not a great start. brands down the most in 13 years in a single session, down 18%. they depended very heavily on china for more than half of its revenue and things from china not going so well despite analyst anticipation that we would see a relatively large rebound and comparable sales there. the company reported a gain of only 2% and if you look at the terminal you can see those comparable sales in china and how they have been trending. they have been trending lower, all these down bars here are declining. we saw a couple of quarter rebounds and then this time the -- this tiny bar here. hasmber of issues that yum faced in china, including an investigation into its food suppliers. that has affected their sales there. looking somewhere else, pandora making acquisition, buying the
ticket vending company, ticket fly. witht fly compete ticketmaster and pandora shares are about 4.6%. i was just looking at a note from an analyst who seems positive on the deal, saying this is an effort by pandora to expand its relationship with artists. looking at ipo today, a company called. storage. it's not a place were you put your stuff, it's an all flash storage system company. it raised -- its shares are down to the first day of trading. we have seen fewer ipos in the third quarter so this is one of the first big ones we've seen. scarlet: the drug miller beer things highly of itself -- thinks highly of itself. offer.pany rejected an matthew campbell joins us now from london.
this is just a matter of price before they actually agreed to something, because you do have some fairly strong support from the biggest shareholder. >> that's right. what we have had today is a rejection from the board of miller with the exclusion of the three board members appointed by all three of -- by the biggest shareholder. they are the kingmaker here and it's really very hard to imagine that if they are not in favor of the deal, that a deal will happen. it seems like this is something that they want and therefore that gives abi a big boost. for the moment, miller is holding out for that higher price. scarlet: what does it need to do until the deadline -- advocates october 24. under u.k. law, they have to pull the plug then. >> and it is see if they can come up with some kind of
combination that the board of miller, it chairman and executives can live with. the current offer is about 42 pounds per share. miller says they want more like 43 -- 44. that does not seem like very much but this is a massive deal. we are talking hundred billion dollars or more. every dollar -- every pound per share you at on their represents billions of dollars for abi in real life. easy to come to and it will be some tough negotiations over the next several days. scarlet: need to make the numbers work in time for that put up or shut up that line. what are the odds of something getting through? for an extension and that happens all the time, but there is a catch. the extension has to be requested by the target, by the u.k. listed company. sab miller would have to be the one asking. to go away, them
all they have to do is not ask for the extension, drag things out to the deadline, then the game is over. scarlet: i'm struck by a note that said the merger between the two would -- would create the number one and number two beer player in the 30 biggest beer markets in the world. is there any reason sab miller would be gun shy because of regulatory reasons? >> i think that is a concern for both sides. they're confident they can come to a commendation with regulators but every trust regulator in the world is going to be looking hard at this. we are talking about a consumer product. seenlitician wants to be driving up the price for joe's sixpack or whatever. you will have a bonanza for lawyers if this deal comes together and a very serious antitrust problem in many countries that would require big data. >> when sab miller rejected the
offer by saying it was substantially undervalued, does that mean 10%, 20%? >> the numbers that have been floating out there are closer to 45 pounds a share. sab miller shares currently are around 37, 38 pounds a share and the offer from abf was at 42. the two sides are not massively far apart that we are getting into stratospheric territory in terms of the amount of financing required, even for a big giant of a company like ab inbev -- ab inbev. scarlet: this really does think to the ship and the alcohol market. we have seen spirits, wines taking much more common stage. we've also seen craft beer exploded and the big guys have had a hard time trying to diversify. it's much more for the smaller players this kind of deal -- if this deal does not get done, what position are these companies and? >> the bear market is not
growing. oft is going on is the one vacation of everything, people are drinking more wine. when they buy beer they are just as likely to go to your local craft river as you are to go to b --d or still large wall stella. what happens when growth in industry slows, you get, -- you get consolidation. it has to have an endpoint and what we are talking about here is a sector that is already really consolidated. there are huge players in the beer industry and this is an even larger one that is being contemplated. that brings us back to the revelatory question and the antitrust challenge. scarlet: that is a much for putting it all into perspective and giving us the lady of the land -- the lay of the land. alix: i kind of one of your right now -- want a beer right now.
alix: welcome back. investors losing their appetite for yum brands. missing its third-quarter earnings in large part because of miserable sales in china. scarlet: the stock is plunging. we are listening in on the conference calls taking place just now. >> the biggest thing that i took away from that is the straightforwardness of the ceo. when bad things happen, they want to sugarcoat things. he was so straightforward and a couple of the quote i pulled. he said the performance is anything but satisfactory, a great admission.
see if this -- the cfo also said how could we have missed our forecast by so much? investors might be appreciating that. with that said, it seems like it is not doing anything to bump up the share price. itsdoes get -- 52% of revenue from china. go ahead and listen to what the ceo said. >> we all, and i personally, take full account ability for the results in china. while there is clearly a macro softening going on, and yes, the online ordering aggregators who are delivering from mom and pops. we are in a battle with heavy discounting and the malls look more like fancy food courts than shopping centers. the economy is still growing and there is every reason and no excuses for why we should not perform better. >> he also said he takes personal responsibility for what is happening in china.
young --f every seven yum stores in -- is in china. we were talking about that, but in fact, it's actually pizza hut that is the biggest problem. there were a both -- a bunch of factors, one of them was the volatility you saw, as well as the valuation -- as the luation.on -- as deva alix: that chart was ugly. scarlet: much more coming up. the democrats want joe biden to challenge hillary clinton. ♪ . . ♪
back to the bloomberg market day. scarlet: mark crumpton has the headlines from our news desk. mark: former u.s. treasury secretary, larry summers, says there's no reason to hit the brakes any harder on the economy. he told bloomberg go today that there are plenty of economic headwinds so the federal reserve should not be concerned about inflation. mr. summers: i've been very clear -- there's no reason to raise rates until you see the whites of inflation's eyes. i look at the data out there and inflation as close to the horizon. to grade theasked performance of fed chair janet yellen and gave her an incomplete. the new poll indicates republican ben carson would beat presidentialc candidates in three swing states. he was matched against hillary
clinton, bernie sanders and joe biden -- he scored better than all of them and ohio and pennsylvania. since 1960 has won at least two of those states. eastern kentucky university is canceling classes after the threat of violence. graffitil discovered threatening to kill all this week. there is no imminent danger but an escalated threat was reported from social media. of the international community should play a role in solving europe's might great -- europe's migration crisis. he noted that the u.s. has taken in 1500 syrian refugees so far while some 324,000 people have entered hungary. california is up efforts against global warming. brown isvernor jerry
scheduled to sign a bill aimed at increasing renewable electricity use by 50% by the year 2030. democrats wanted to cut petroleum use i half but that was beaten back by the oil industry. look at our headlines right now. you can find the latest on bloomberg.com. votershat do democratic think of their candidates for president right now? "with all due respect" conducted a poll. scarlet: and one of the questions, should joe biden throw his hat into the ring and challenge hillary clinton? mark: we think it would be a good thing if joe biden entered the race -- only one of you? raise your hand if you think joe biden is qualified to be president. >> i guess you could say qualified.
>> i can't put my finger on it. i don't have a good reason why i don't think he should run. >> i'm not sure he would make the best president for us. sometimes about some of the things he has done and said. >> he's a little bit wishy-washy with some things. he seems like a fun guy but i don't know if commander-in-chief would be the best for him. >> i don't know that we are going for fun guy right now. he seems like a guy you would not mind going to catch a game with. >> you see pictures of him having a birthday party with kids and him and obama walking around with super soakers. that's funny and great but i don't think as a president, i don't know if he would be able to stand up. i think he's a good support person but i think he has such a big heart that he can be the face of the united states that he needs to be.
but he is smart and talented. he's a good person to have behind-the-scenes. >> i would have to agree with exactly what she said. i don't feel like the fire is there. it's not catching like some of the rest of the candidates. temperamentbout his a little bit and some of the decisions he makes. >> i have to tell a personal story. our son died and i know there's no way he could focus on what he needs to focus on for five years. >> i don't think he brings anything to the field we don't already have, so it just complicates things in a way i don't find helpful. mark halperin conducted that focus group with john heilemann. was that surprising to you? and if you look at the polls, his advisers point out if he got in the race, anyone who gets in what does
better once they are in. the depth of the feeling in iowa and new hampshire, the first two states to vote about not wanting joe biden to run and not seeing a lot of qualifications and feeling if he is not in it now, he will never be in it. lukewarmthey were so on the prospect of president biden. how do they feel about the other candidates? mark: they like her and respect her. it new hampshire, they thought her personality might be offputting to men. what is most interesting in terms of bernie sanders, four months when i have been in iowa and new hampshire's -- in new hampshire, they say hillary is going to be the nominee. but in this group, they had a strong opinion he could win the iowa caucus and new hampshire primary. that is psychologically a big boost. he's ahead in new hampshire and close in iowa. the more democrats think he could be a victor, the better
off you would be for the voters. are these guys going to be the first in line when there's a caucus or primary? these are voters as best areould screen them who interested in voting in the primary and caucuses. candidate. on a most of them were undecided and open to multiple choices. these are people who are placed -- you are paying close attention, well-informed and still looking for the right candidate for top scarlet: we have had two republican presidential debates but we have not had any for the democrat side. one is coming up next week. how much do people know about the candidates you are not named clinton or sanders? not beoe biden will there. you have the former governor of maryland, martin o'malley and the former governor of rhode island and a former united states senator, jim webb.
lincoln chafee -- they are not a very well-known. it will be interesting to see how much time they get. i think the moderators will talk mostly to sanders and clinton. none of them have been particularly aggressive going after hillary clinton. i suspect one or two of the lesser-known candidates might try to take her on a bit and she has to be worried. alix: and trump won't be there. trump's presence will loom over the strip. 24 million viewers is not going to happen. next 20 minutes of the bloomberg market day, tech stocks have been up and down today as names like amazon and apple retreat. we will get a live report from pimm fox at the nasdaq. alix: dick costolo has a new gig. the former standup has what a ceo needs to help out with it it shows. withet: and staying
scarlet: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. alix: it's time now for a business flash -- shares of yum brands being hammered today. the company is missing on third-quarter profit hurt right to lingering slump in china. yen gets more than half its revenue from china where same-store sales rose by 2%. bell and kfc taco are folk -- are coping with the
fallout from the investigation and they chinese economy. the number three seller of all flash storage systems sold 25 million shares of class a stock at $17 apiece. they had offered them at 16 to $18 each. todayares began trading and are down almost 5% in their debut. alix: dick costolo has a new gig -- he's a consultant for hbo's "silicon valley per quote -- silicon valley." left the company's board. we want to focus on trading at the nasdaq. pimm fox is there with the
details. pimm: we are trading off the lows of the session but started the session must hire -- much higher. we got the inventory report and the market started to collapse. but is not one of the gains -- adobe coming out before the market opened saying before the fiscal year ended in november 2016, they will be earning $2.70 a share. we know what happens when you don't meet analyst estimates. the stock goes down and is down about 7% right now. let me turn your attention to starbucks -- they have named the first chief technology officer. she was the chief information officer at adobe, so good on her. taking on the reins of the cto position at starbucks. that pay and go strategy they are developing and testing it in
the united states. shares are slightly lower today. but i also want to focus on amazon. they've got a new service called snowball and will be releasing some business data analytics. shares of amazon are lower a little bit today. on health care and pharmaceuticals. we have been watching that over the course of the last few weeks. shares of amgen and express scripts moving higher. it is a combined store because express says they are going to cover cholesterol drugs as part of their pharmacy benefit program. we see health care and biotech -- gettinging a bid
a bit after falling. another stock having a weird technical move his twitter. i love looking at these moving averages. you see twitter climbing above the 50 day moving average, climbing toward the 100 day. i have to think dick costolo has to have a comedy routine about the stock of twitter. scarlet: maybe it will make it into "silicon valley" next season. twitter has not recouped the losses after dick costolo step down from twitter. now they are seeing some kind of technical action. you heard bill gurley yesterday speaking to emily chang about how he thinks twitter could be much bigger. of course he is an investor but he thinks the new chief executive, jack dorsey could do
both the jobs that square and twitter. is bullish and maybe that is affecting the stock today. scarlet: i'm glad you brought up biotech because we will be speaking about that later as well. pimm at the nasdaq. sleeves rolled up -- i like it. samsung is making news -- the sincesurging the most 2009, rallying nearly 8.5% at the close in seoul. >> a surprise beat for samsung. nearly 80% to $6.3 billion for the third quarter. the weaker currency helped to birds -- helped to boost revenue. sales of devices have been lukewarm and struggling to compete with apple iphones in the chinese -- and chinese
smartphone makers. we will get a better gauge when the company releases division earnings later this month. when should the federal reserve raise interest rates? larry summers stopped by bloomberg go and listen to what he thinks. there is no reason to raise rates until you see the whites of inflation's eyes. i look at the eta out there and i don't see -- i look at the data out there and i don't see inflation as close to the horizon. >> i don't think the fed is asleep at the wheel, but the fed is behaving like they are scared come a scared of the markets, scared to do anything and that is reckless. steve schwarzman of blackstone wrote an op-ed where he said the cause of the next financial crisis will be regulators. there's a big negative sentiment
around the fed's in action from notable investors. are they wrong? mr. summers: i think they are. we all prefer the economy was stronger and that the right thing to do was to raise rates. but wishing it doesn't make it so. seven central banks around the have in the last few years followed the reasoning of the people that you have quoted, saying things are bit better and zero is a problem so we will raise rates. and seven central bank that raise rates have had to retreat and pull them right back. fed'ss not what the credibility needs. may, i was on the other side. i thought the right thing to do rates at zero, which is what the fed did. but i could see how last may you could reasonably have made the
was growingt there enthusiasm and we have been a zero for a long time it was time to raise rates. i don't see how you can look at third-quarter growth forecast that are running at about 1.5% -- that's close to stall speed. when you are at stall speed and slowdown, it's not good what happens next. had been chair of the fed, would you have done things different than what has been done? mr. summers: i have a lot of admiration for what janet yellen has done and i think it is very hard to try to second-guess without seeing the same data thatand full context people do. i know at various moments when i have been in office, there have been people who are out of office who had all kinds of comments about what we were just knew if they do
all the things i knew, they would be saying something different. i took a vow -- i have expressed my opinions on the issues of the day, but i was not going to second-guess what officeholders were doing. in all seriousness, i've got great respect for janet yellen. and the job she is doing. stephanie: would you give her and a? mr. summers: i would give her and complete because her term is not yet over. i have -- i would give her and incomplete because her term is not yet over. i have great respect for janet yellen. they had an incredible lineup of guests. alix: and they have been bernanke tomorrow. you saw a lot of banks pushing back there forecast -- inc. of america pushed it back and now there is a slower rate of increase. that seems to be the trend --
everyone meeting goldman sachs in some capacity. everything he has said so far has been very backward looking. "vanity fair" new establishment summit concludes today in san francisco. alix: emily chang is there along with redstone and she is standing by with evan williams, cofounder of twitter. thank you so much for joining us. it's great to have you here. i know you have had an eventful last two months, said thank you for taking the time. talk aboutg to twitter first. you said in your own medium post that you have had more conference calls in the last three months that you have had in your entire life.
guest: there are a lot of conference calls involved in doing a ceo search. emily: how did you come to bringing jack on his permanent eeo? ev: everyone from the beginning new jack was capable and had a unique perspective on the company. there's a question of whether he could do the twitter job and square job. see what our options are and that was our job as the board to look far and wide and eventually, we thought the combination of what jack brings to the table and what he had already done in the last three or four months convinced does he was the best person for the job. how do you really feel about the fact he was doing two jobs. must was on stage yesterday saying he doesn't recommend it. would sayt think jack it either. no one would say this is ideal that we want anyone trying to split, but it doesn't change the
fact that he's the best choice. brad: you guys want to reformulate the twitter board and find a new chairman. what are you looking for? ev: we are just at the beginnings of figuring that out. ceoere fully focused on the search for a while and it wasn't until deciding for sure that jack was the ceo that we knew what we needed in the board and he's going to play a big role and the chairman and ceo need to have a good relationship. breath: a lot of attention has : a lot of attention has been paid to yours and jack's relationship. what would you say about that now? i have joked that twitter is like our mutual child. and we come together hold its future as our highest
priorities. we see i to i would it comes to the future of twitter. emily: how much do you see yourself working with him on the product going forward? i'm happy to be helpful when i can. i'm not perhaps as good as splitting my time as jack is, but i will help wherever i can. emily: you have a big event in san francisco tonight and you are going to unveil something. give us a clue. ev: we are going to unveil a bunch of things. some of it is roddick. we have wrapped up a bunch of new features -- some of it is product. there are some new partnerships we are announcing and a little bit about our future plans of how to make publishing sustainable on the platform and the internet. we are excited but it's a wide selection of stuff.
you guys have recently raised $57 million in capital. what does that get you? ev: momentum has been building on medium a lot this year. what that lets us do is extend our runway for a good long while while it we -- while we build the business. emily: google is working at accelerating the webpage. do you see a potential for medium to be part of this? i think everybody is seeing the same thing -- speed and convenience always when in the end. medium.why we built to see if we could build a schema -- a seamless reading and writing experience that integrates nightly -- integrates nicely. versuswhere they will go a thousand different websites that load slowly.
brad: somebody called medium the newswire for the new generation. ev: it's obviously a shortsighted take. medium is a publishing platform. it gives everyone a voice and gives individuals, companies, and organizations a voice. millions of websites are basically promotional websites. a lot of them publish on medium. it's a small percent but it is there like twitter. content platforms have a marketing component. what does success for twitter and jack look like in five years? ev: twitter is just getting started in terms of its potential and i think jack can unlock that. the team that is going to unlock that is going to be much rigor than it is now. emily: thank you for joining us. conversation,
a.m. in hong kong. scarlet: welcome to the bloomberg market day. from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i'm scarlet fu. alix: and i'm alix steel. we have oil moving off the session lows. it had been in retreat following a government report saying crude inventories climbed last week. ceolet: the under armour and michael lewis talked about how companies had to deal with investors and whether it would be better to stay private. fantasy sports to a crude reality -- sending company records over to the office. scarlet: let's head to the market desk where julie hyman is keeping track of the markets. where are we now? julie: we are not having a barnburner of a session but if
we rise, it would be six of the past seven sessions stocks have gained. there's not much conviction with the s&p 500 approaching the 50 day moving average. the 2000as though level for the smb has been difficult to breach. if you look at my map on the bloomberg terminal, this is the mix that has been fluid today. fluid,tion technology health care is now the best performing group. what a switch that is. that's the index we have been watching to track the turmoil. it was earlier for reversing and yesterday it reversed and now is higher by about 2%. biotech has been such fertile ground recently both for buyers and sellers.
carl icahn is driving the best performance in a stock. freeport-mcmoran copper & gold is what we are talking about. he won to get two of his representatives on the board and the shares are getting a boost of 9%. this has been one of the most battered stocks of the year. it will be seeking auction -- options for its oil ventures. an interesting piece on bloomberg.com on the prospect for the success of this oil and gas spinoff. there are no guarantees freeport will do better without it or it will do better on its own. ofrlet: we will have the ceo under armour and michael lewis giving their perspective on activist investors and the disruption they cause. alix: i'm reading a lot of research reports that copper will slowly see some kind of
deficit next year. one analyst says they are looking at a balanced market this year. would lead freeport to dislodge its copper business. maybe it is premature if we see a recovery. let's check in on our bloomberg first word headlines now with mark crumpton. outgoingbegin with house speaker john boehner. he said today identifying the mentally ill is the key to preventing gun violence. in what may be one of his final news conference is as speaker, the ohio republican criticized the way president obama reacted to last week's mast -- mass shooting in oregon. boehner: let's talk about what can we do to make sure people with serious mental illness don't have access to weapons. let's quit fighting over this ,nd start thinking about how
what is doable and what would have an impact? mark: at least three congressmen want to succeed boehner who is retiring. house will vote to choose a new speaker on october 29. vice president joe biden has not said whether he's running for president but he's being urged to do so in a new ad focusing on a tragedy in leiden's life. a 1972 car accident that killed his wife and daughter. it includes audio of a speech he delivered at yale diversity recalling how his life was shaped by the accident. sources say biden may make a decision about an -- about a white house run as early as this weekend. russia says it is attacking islamic state and other groups from the sea. warships in the caspian sea fired missiles at 11 targets today in addition to russian airstrikes. those attacks were accompanied by a syrian army offensive. that is the first time that has happened.
carolina governor, nikki haley, says the central part of the state is recovering from last week's historic rainfall and the flooding that has ravaged some areas. but she said officials are keeping a close eye on the southeastern part of the state. some people who left their homes have been allowed to return. is a huge mass of water is still flowing toward the sea which could lead to more flooding. governor says 62 dams are being monitored and 13 have failed. three scientists will share the nobel prize for chemistry for their work on dna. one of them as at the university of north carolina and the other is at duke medical school. the cell explained how repairs its dna and safeguards its information. our first wordat headlines. you can always find the latest news on bloomberg.com. scarlet: mark crumpton with our bloomberg first word headlines.
it has been a rare week of optimism for oil, which has climbed back toward $50 a barrel. gains were tempered by a government report indicating an increase in crude inventories. does this mean the markets have found some kind of stability? not according to ed morris. : this is a repeat of what happened last spring. we had very bearish data last week but at the end of the week, we had a recount that was fairly bullish and the market responded . if it goes down, production will follow immediately and we should have learned that that doesn't happen. for more on that, i want to go into the bloomberg terminal and look at the recent action we have seen. the wti well above its moving average. 200 day the 100 and moving average. converged and it is
literally knocking on its door. had the recovery been more technical than fundamental. we want to bring in andrew cosgrove. what is your call? andrew: you could definitely attributed to more technical factors. was headline driven. we are going to be in this 40 to 60 rain -- range for the foreseeable future, so there will be lots of volatility as we look ahead. scarlet: what does that mean for u.s. shale producers as opposed to let's say saudi arabia? andrew: our thought as we stay in this holding pattern. probably into the fourth quarter. we are still calling for this bathtub shaped scenario to unfold. we see pretty lackluster
activity and it being pushed into 2017. will be somewhere between 20 and 30% and we think the trajectory is muted. we think the oil market stays oversupplied through 2016. alix: that is the question of has u.s. production rolled over? i feel like i'm reading all of yes, theyrts saying have. we see an actual decline in the u.s.. do you agree with that assessment? >> if you look at the chart, u.s. production has rolled over from highs. to say that it has, you are not looking at the data. an increase last month and i think you are going to see some sharp declines as you move into the back half of the year. but you will start to level out for016, so we are calling
an average decline next year and that if we get a price response, we think it will be capped by the drills and uncompleted well back and the prospect that saudi arabia could increase production as a rhenium barrels come on the market and barak pushes production as well. -- as saudi arabia pushes back as well. you are doing all this work and then holding off with all the supply that can be pushed at a moments notice that can come online at the optimum time. scarlet: i want to bring you a comment from the u.n. secretary general -- he said that we see some light at the end of the tunnel. you are talking about oil remaining oversupplied through 2016. is this wishful thinking on his
part? andrew: we think it depends on how the saudi's react. what you are looking to do here is discourage capital investment, namely in the u.s. and non-opec countries. as that production rolls over, saudi arabia may take the opportunity to increase production. they will have neighbors in iraq and iran increasing production, so it makes sense to follow that strategy. and they are trying to offset their cash burden. see a rally and the brent of uti spread rallying is that a good thing for the market or do we need oil to go to 40 and stay there for a couple of months? is this kind of rally a bummer? just delays with the markets really need and that is a lower price to clear the
market to a certain extent. we need that capital investment to fall. we think it's going to happen in the u.s. again next year if we continue to stay in this price range. thed fall somewhere in neighborhood of 15% to 20% next year. take a look inside my bloomberg terminal and you can see the short interest for wti crude. it has been moving up a little bit but let me max out this chart and you can see how high short interest is. you can't rule out any kind of short covering when you have a tight a -- a tiny data point. scarlet: still plenty bearish when it comes to oil. the oil market remains oversupplied, what does that do to the push to reverse the export ban?
andrew: the longer it stays low, it doesn't give the u.s. an outlet to get rid of our production. you get to spread tightening and it will -- refinery production may be compressed as well. on a longer-term basis, as oil prices start to recover, they should start to think about opening up exports to allow that crude to flow. alix: everybody freak out. scarlet: they have been doing so well until now. coming up in the next 20 minutes of the bloomberg market day, biotech shares are recovering after getting pounded yesterday. we will look at the latest catalyst for this volatile group.
the third biggest sellers of all flash storage systems sold its shares for $17 each. it values the company at more than $3 billion. shares began trading today. to make pandora wants it easier for its monthly users to buy concert tickets. buying any says it is online ticketing company, putting them into competition with live nation and ticketmaster, the industry leader. pandora says it's going to take the company beyond its radio roots. right now at the largest feed company. monsanto will illuminate about 12% of its workforce as part of a cost cutting plan aiming for $300 million in savings. the company says profits will be week through 2016 amid the commodities slumped. you can always get more
business news at bloomberg.com. look at someas a individual company movers and we are going to start with china-related names because of that. awful result from yum brands. awful result from yum brands. --julie: let's look on the bright side from wynn results. up 49%revenue in macau versus september levels, average daily levels during this old and weak time. nn andould be good for wy some of its competitors. we have been talking about apple falling today. there is a report from an analyst at the company's iphone six s china sales are not meeting projections. apple shares down about 1%.
you can see the increasing importance of china to apple on this chart. what you are looking at is revenue in the americas and revenue in china. it now accounts for about 17% of apple's overall sales. yum brands is taking a huge hit on its china result. the 9.6 percent analysts were estimating. yum brands shares down 19%, accelerating the clients. one sector getting battered lately is why attack. the decline turning ugly after outrage directed over a 5000% price increase for one drug. scarlet: but is tkethear -- joining usting now is jc o'hara and asthika
goonewardene. this popped up with hillary clinton's tweet looking into drug pricing. was that an excuse to take some profits or was that a genuine political risk? asthika: i think there was some genuine profit taking. there was a lot of noise about it. can it actually materialized? we think there is more headline risk than commodities in the future. if hillary actually wins the election, she will have to get a democratic house in place and thread the needle to make this fly. there was a great chart from bloomberg intelligence showing what happened in the last i attacked selloff. wantis the time where you to white knuckle it or do you need to let this shakeout more? obviously have
changed. they are weak or definitely slowing and momentum has been negative. sentiment is a huge factor in this story. the tweet by hillary was not a knockout, just a step back. spaceeadwind in the bio -- biotech space. if you look back in march, we saw the same thing happen -- congress put out a letter and said we are going to start looking at pricing of certain drugs and what happened? biotech sold off 20%. if you would have weight in two months, you could have got it on the bottom and would be up 80%. history repeats itself, especially if you take a longer step back to 2011. biotech stocks are up 4% and the s&p is down, so it's an out performer. it's not like energy where the market is up and energy is getting crushed. this is taking one step back before we gain momentum. pricing is one of the
biggest attributes. willinge are investors to pay a premium for when it comes to this sector? all aboutt is science. we are going through what i would classify as a scientific revolution. fivewe did in the last years outpaces what we've done in the last century in terms of growth and development. a lot of companies out there, especially younger i attacked companies, even bigger biotech companies like gilead and i'm -- and amgen have essentially owned the disease space and are broadening out. the analyst estimates for these companies and they are looking good going up to 2019. scarlet: thank you very much for joining us today. ahead, carl icahn is
welcome back to the bloomberg market day. i'm scarlet fu. alix: and i'm alix steel. scarlet: the relationship between companies and corporate shareholders can be tricky. it could make them privy to sensitive inflation. just published on this and the author joins us. professor, tell us what you found in the research. guest: using a set of meeting records, we looked at these meetings between investors and managers. what we found is investors who
actually get this face time with senior executives are able to make more informed trading decisions. this is not simply due to investors that are more skilled. we find that these improved or more forms trains -- trades only occur in the quarters where they are able to meet with senior executives. and: how is that legal ethical? it's not insider trading but you are definitely getting an edge. eugene: that's a great at that -- that's a great point. that's known as regulation disclosure. as was passed in 2000 and basically says managers or executives could not disclose any information material to investors in these one-on-one meetings. the idea of what was material information was defined pretty vaguely. a reasonabletion investor would find useful for
making a more informed trading decision. the obvious question -- why would he investor travel all the way from san francisco to new york if they could not acquire information a reasonable investor would find useful? this is the fine line. investors are able to do this because they are not acquiring material information but acquiring a much more fuzzy, immaterial information and using this information in conjunction with other information they have acquired, conversations with suppliers and buyers, they can put it all together and make a more informed decision. alix: we have to leave it there. we will be right back on bloomberg market day. ♪
market day p i'm alix steel. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. mark crumpton has more from the news desk. mark: thank you so much. all members of the international community should play a role in resolving europe's migration crisis, according to the hungarian president, says the u.s., canada, and china are secure nations that are "suited for taking in refugees." he noted the u.s. has taken in 1500 syrian refugees so far while some 300 24,000 people have entered hungary. the ongoing violence in jerusalem has forced benjamin netanyahu to cancel a planned trip to germany. esther netanyahu is staying behind to closely monitor the situation. the meeting was meant to mark 50 years of diplomatic ties and would have involved ministers from both countries. bloody attacks at a site reviewed by both jews and muslims.
vice president joe biden is being urged to run for president in a new ad focusing on the 1972 carson that killed his wife and daughter. the ad includes audio of the speech he delivered at yale university, recalling how his life was shaped by the accident. sources say he may make a decision about a white house run as early as this weekend. istern kentucky university canceling classes for the rest of the week after the threat of violence. the school discovered graffiti threatening to "kill all" this week. security has been increased around the campus. officials say there is no imminent danger but recorded -- but reported in escalating threat in from social media. wall street financiers are shrugging their shoulders, placing bets on mainstream presidential hopefuls like jeb bush, marco rubio, and hillary clinton. showing little enthusiasm for donald trump, bernie sanders.
donorr indicator of preference will be revealed next month when campaigns disclose fundraising results for the latest quarter. ourthat is a look at headlines right now. you can find the latest news on bloomberg.com. back to you. billionaire activist -- two allies come to its board. the announcement comes after it was cutting its board at freeport. alix: earlier today on "bloomberg go," michael lewis talked about how companies have to do with donating investors and whether it might be better to say private. giving them lead time, telling them what the ploy is an saying do you want to be a part of it or not -- again, for
us, look at the history. if you have performance, it changes. if something were to change again, something to change again with myself and the way we are set up, the government structure would change as well. it is very balanced. you are not going to get away with things that you maybe would have gotten away with 20 or 30 years ago. stephanie: what is an investor they deserve? >> investors that was stick with a long-term plan. me andomeone walks up to says, kevin, thanks so much, i made a lot of money with your stock. i'm glad you were able to make money and help get your kids through school, but does that mean that you do not believe in where we are going because you sold my stock? emotion may creep in from time to time and say there is another side of that trade, and get on board with my company.
i still just think we are getting started and the best days are in front of us. i think it is a good buy, even today. stephanie: every investor out there wants to claim i am not a traitor, i am a long-term investor. they love to say that, but when you look at a new issue, a new ipo, they seize themselves, everybody, and their brother. it is not just hedge funds that are considered fast money. michael: we open at the six dollars later that day, and then we had a run. the one thing we need to know when you become a public company, it is not the finish line. so many entrepreneurs say i cannot wait to get public, then i have really made it. >> is there a good argument for being a public company this day? if there is a private company in the industry, the private companies -- has less hassle
because it is not in the public markets. do you think it would be easier to run? kevin: we probably took a significant discount to the valuation. the reason was i did not want to commit to being a public company. i took the discount because of it. within a year of having brought on sort of smart investors and smart money, they helped me see the power of having a strong balance sheet. the power of having access to capital and liquidity. we wanted to be best in class that we did not have to hide behind. open our kimono four times a year and say this is how we did it. i do that whether we are private or public. stephanie: but you could not make better long-term decisions if you did not have to worry about shareholders knocking on your door? kevin: there are places you could make that case. we celebrated 30% topline and bottom-line growth in our 10 years as a public company. it is important. people are probably
deemphasizing the importance of being profitable. it is as much about cultural, the cultural idea of winning. a lost money in europe for long time. it affects the team and the company and it creeps in in other areas. you could make success and winning and profitability -- is not some capitalistic idea of greed. our custom rate -- our company is used to winning. we invite that. scarlet: that was kevin plank and michael lewis speaking with stephanie ruhle. activist talked about investors, i was going through mental checklist of which sectors have not been touched by activist investors. it was hard to come up with one. staples, you have png under attack. microsoft caved to pressure to some extent. energy, materials companies, check. alix: if you look at freeport , you do last two days
wind up seeing a pop in the stock. are completely bleeding cash as they are trying to get this off their balance sheets. people may not understand what a commodity business actually is and how the commodities super cycle actually works. you're looking for decades, not the next six to nine or even three or five years. however, i thought kevin plank was making a good point that there are some arguments to be made for why private is better. the stock for glencore has not been able to reach its level in 2011 since. it is something you might want to do because it has so much scrutiny and the debt has come under so much burden. scarlet: when you're in an industry where something has
som's -- has so structurally changed, in that case it is better to take it private. making the transition from hardware to the more valuable and revenue-generating software services and not do it with the scrutiny of everything on investor asking him did you make your quarter. alix: it is true. what happens in the business model actually winds up changing. do they need access to cash? that is what they have bank loans for. they had access to levels of credit, which is what they would do to fund mining operations in that respect. when they have done it this year, the stock is down. that door is definitely closed to them. it is going to be interesting to see. there might be some activity in glencore, at harris holdings. scarlet: harris associates. alix: will they come in, or will the private conversation take
more hold. face of not of the everyone, releasing letters to the press and seeing what they get out of that. alix: is the benefits of going public in this market. uber, i can see billions of dollars going private. why would i go public? conference calls a recorder have to answer questions. coming up in the next 20 minutes of "bloomberg market day," stocks are fluctuating to regain some losses. julie hyman has the latest as we head to the final hours of trading. first oilil holds its auction since the scandal. our live report from rio de janeiro is next. scarlet: law enforcement is setting its sights on fantasy sports companies after an insider trading scandal. ♪
alix: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. i'm alix steel. scarlet: our first story -- investors are turning away from so-called gateway cities. a new study says the dallas-fort worth area is the top ranked area for commercial investment. austin, texas, and charlotte, north carolina, are in the next two spots. manhattan ranked 15th. austin was 13th. alix: institutional investigator -- institutional investor is ranking bank of america number one.
the best stock analysts in the u.s., jpmorgan takes second place. institutional investor review to hundred 85 analysts. low -- dickosta costolo stepped down as twitter ceo in july, and last week he left the company ford. get more inys business news at bloomberg.com. alix: we want to head over to the market desk, where julie hyman has the latest. prettys like a lackluster day. julie: we are headed into earnings season, and that is what is going to be the next catalyst, but the next question is whether it will be positive or negative. analysts are looking for a drop in earnings for the s&p 500 or just the 10th of percent. not great if you exclude energy. this is a chart of positive
earnings surprises over the course of the last three quarters and over the course of the quarter. this chart was highlighted by david wilson. it came from a brazilian global markets. essentially you see the last three quarters. the percentage of companies beating their earnings estimates fell as the quarter went on. in other words, earnings got worse. earnings reports got worse the further into the reporting season you got. this might not bode well for stock performance as the quarter reporting goes on. this is another chart that we have talked a little bit about. this is the seasonal chart for the s&p 500, the 30-year average. if you overlay the s&p 500's performance over the last 30 years, this is what you would get. here we are in october. what we tend to see is a dip in the beginning of the month, and then a rally through year-end. there is a lot of conflicting evidence and views right now as
to what the reaction is. there is this sort of seasonal pattern that we see coming out of the third quarter reporting season. then there is this particular earnings season and what we will hear from various companies. analyst ishnical saying you should prep yourself for a fourth quarter rally. julie: he is one of many making that commentary. auctionazil's first oil , the oil scandal has wrapped up. more than 260 areas were up for grabs. -- peter bullard is real --the auction in in rio de janeiro. what is your biggest take away from this option that from this auction? peter: we thought that they were going to be restrained, but they did not bid for one single
block. so the company is showing true financial restraint in terms of trying to get spending under cost soand reduce its that it can tackle its enormous debt burden because it has more debt than any other oil company out there. historically, petrobras has a strong culture of wanting to be in all of the major exploration areas. the previous 12 concession has held.hat brazil so this is a real change of culture over there. at all previous auctions, petrobras and others were responsible for half or more of the sales. where there any other companies that were registered from -- registered for the auction that just stand by and watched?
>> none of the other oil majors placed this either. exxon mobil was registered to their. they do not have large numbers, but this would have been an option in -- an opportunity for them to reenter the brazilian poort after they had some exploration results a few years back. and also, the oil majors we do have, significant production in -- none of -- shell them presented bids today, and they were registered to bid. alix: what is your take away from that? is it the fact that we have oil prices below 50, so is it a price issue? or is it -- what am i trying to or are the assets they are trying to sell not that great, so their wedding -- they are waiting for ba better assets down the road? >> i think it is
all the above. to develop what they have in the most cost effective way possible. now, they have this ongoing corruption scandal that the -- acated a logic lot of the major suppliers. must be a concern. and some of the things that oil companies were able to overlook during the boom years -- for example, onerous local content requirements where you need to buy a certain percentage of goods and services that are made in brazil, that was something that they were able to justify a few years back. this time around, i think that might have been a little bit too much and it might have been one of the factors that deterred more aggressive bidding. millard,peterman
thank you. alix: compared to the mexico oil auction, that was also part of stirring the pot. scarlet: they did better in this auction then two years ago. alix: they did, but they had to sweeten the pot to do it. up, a daily fantasy sports company could be headed for real trouble. legal trouble here. we are going to investigate. ♪
"bloomberg market day." i'm alix steel. scarlet: if you watch the last test last night's playoff baseball game -- alix: admitted, you cried. scarlet: you did not see ads for the draft king, the company that had been blitzing the airwaves with spots. there were allegations that an employee used internal information to win money. the hope of laying low and did yesterday when new york attorneys general requested records to be sent over to his office. kerry geithner joins us with more. you spent your time covering financial crimes, and this falls into your purview now. >> everything seems to fall into my purview these days. we also have fifa. scarlet: what is the new york attorney general asking for? everyone has already determined that fantasy sports is a legal game of skill, right?
insider trading. what is it like to when it can -- what is it like when it comes to fantasy sports? >> this could be a civil issue where the bar is much lower. it could basically be a civil inquiry. see, schneiderman is not the first official to look at this. many are asking why is this so unregulated. we are seeing people from congress and people have questions. this is the first specific inquiry. if you are gathering evidence on whether or not employees were using internal data, obviously that would be a really good case to test some of those issues within 10. if they are going to a rival site to place bets, they are $350,000, which is not as significant. you can see that. going forward, what is this mean for the bigger business of these
two companies? nowink it is considered $2.6 billion a year in revenues, and it grows about 40% per year. scarlet: you cannot find those numbers anywhere else. >> you cannot, and it is one of those rare indices of industries that have grown so fast. regulations have not kept up to what they need to do on this. airbnb, thend technology behind it goes much faster than the regulations can keep up. cbs, yahoo!, what does it mean for those kinds of players? >> these companies that leave this industry, they have major investors. some of those are major sports leagues, major private equity firms. scarlet: they are partners with them. >> they are. a lot of them have hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue a year, and they will look to make sure of what their legal exposure is. moving forward, any time you get
a state, federal, official or regulator poking around and opening an inquiry, you have the civilunity for a litigation to come down on you. we are going to be watching closely to see that these people are going to start doing private litigation and lawsuits. scarlet: it comes down to other fans continue to use these websites as well as it. if they start bowing out, that will spell the end of that. kerry geithner, joining us today. from sports to beer. the next hour will look at the chances that a be in beth goes -- that ab inbev goes hostile sabrd its purchasing miller. ♪ ♪
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from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i am david gura. a dramatic twist in the beer wars. sab miller turns down $100 billion. will the bidding go higher? i will talk to the cfo of the moscow stock exchange about investing in russia where stocks are up this year even as the country copes with sanctions and the oil prices. larry summershy thinks the fed should hold off on raising interest rates for now. first, let's head to the markets desk with julie hyman. julie: we are seeing a rally going on today. at least for now. stocks have been fluctuating because of what's been going on in the oil markets. you see all three major averages are hanging onto their gains.